This question has been asked countless thousands of times at the track.
Handicapping a race has meant trying to select themost
likely winner. Most horseplayers, even today, approach betting this way. But
this is NOT the way to make profits; it is the way to lose your
bankroll.
"Losers think of
selecting the winner and beating a race.
Professionals think of betting for value and beating the races."
Barry Meadow, "Money Secrets at the Racetrack", p.31
"WHOM SHOULD YOU BET?"
The hottest concept in handicapping these days is VALUE BETTING. In its
simplest form, value handicapping means that the bettor handicaps the win
contenders in a race and then ranks them by the probability of each horse's
chance of winning. The win probablility is then converted into mathematically
equivalent "fair odds". Let's say you have three win contenders
in a race:
HORSE
Win Probability
Fair Odds
Track Odds
Overlay
WIN BET
Horse A
50%
1-1
3-5
NO
NO
Horse B
25%
3-1
5-2
NO
NO
Horse C
20%
4-1
8-1
YES
YES
To make profits at the races, you must make value bets. That
is, you must bet ONLY on OVERLAYS, horses whose track odds are higher than
their chance of winning, as shown by their fair odds. If you bet on underlays,
horses whose track odds are lower than their chance of winning (fair odds), you
are doomed tolose over time. In the example above, Horse C is the win
bet; odds should be 4-1, but the public has overlooked this horse, and the
smart bettor gets 8-1
"The secret of" making money at the racetrack...... is to exploit errors in the crowd's line
(track odds) Meadow, p.1
"Value Handicapping represents a resurrection of sound gambling principles
based on wagering only when the potential return is greater than the investor's
risk. No human or super-human can make a profit at the races by betting
underlays.
And no one in their right mind should be betting at all if they've not
learned to distinguish between a bet of value and an underlay. As Dick
Mitchell has said, handicappers who restrict all bets to overlayscannot
help but win in the long run." Mark Cramer, "Value Handicapping",
p.14
To discover the overlays (value bets), you must have
an ACCURATE fair oddsbetting line. This is VALULINE.
An intelligent horseplayer can construct a reasonably accurate fair odds
betting line, but how many do it? It is a time consuming process which must be
done after handicapping the win contenders. Will you do it?
Overlays are awaiting the smart horse player at all the major tracks now
available for betting. With VALULINE, America's best betting line, you have the
opportunity to discover these overlays and make only value bets.
"Betting overlays consistently will lead to
long-term profit..."
Tim Osterman, Meadow's Racing Monthly, p.17
"WHY IS VALULINE A NECESSITY FOR MAKING
PROFITS?"
VALULINE provides a fair odds betting line daily for
virtually all race tracks in North America. The win contenders in each race are
listed by the official trackprogramnumberand their
VALULINEfair odds.
Without VALULINE, you will not be able to discover the overlays necessary for
you to profit. Not knowing the fair odds, you will lose your bankroll betting
underlays.
The THOROUGHBRED VALULINE is the output of a very sophisticated econometric
computer program, which is the result of years of professional research
and testing. VALULINE's objective is to make horse race betting profitable.
VALULINE provides the tool and the method (betting strategies) to achieve
this objective.
Simply compare VALULINE odds to track odds, discover the overlays, and bet to
win. Bet ONLY win contenders whose track odds are higher than their VALULINE
odds. For example, a horse which is 3-1 on VALULINE and 9-2 on the track tote
is a value bet.
