Saturday, May 25, 2024

The New Improved Valuline Report includes:

1. A Strength Rating for win contenders in each race. Note that better races usually contain stronger horses. A horse with an "average" Strength Rating may be 1/1 TVL odds in a weak field, when a horse with a superior Strength Rating may be 1/1 in a strong field. If you wish to confine your betting to stronger, generally more predictable races, the Strength Rating can help guide you to these bets.

2. Whereas the TVL odds are the composite result of all the factors affecting a win contender's capability, Postive Factors (or special attributes of individual win contenders) are listed. These are intended as extra or "additiional information" which has improved the scoring of individual win contenders. (It is for those users who like to know this horse-specific information.)

3. After computer testing of 300,000 races, the TVL odds line is closer to perfection. That is, it now closely mirrors the actual performance of horses. For example a horse with 1/1 TVL odds will win about 50% of the time. (Note: our testing compared TVL predictions to actual race results at all race tracks in North America for the last five years)

4. Following the above testing, the win percentage of all of our "symbol" horses has been increased.

5. Our Thumbs Up horses now win more than 50% of the time. We introduce a Power Play ( "fist" symbol) ,which is a sub-category of Thumbs Up. It qualifies as a "key" (or single) horse in exotic betting. Although it wins at a lower percentage than the Thumbs Up, it offers more value (higher track odds).

6. The new Recommended Exotic Wagers are all intended for 'economical' betting. That is, to make money betting exotics, you must have "key" horses. Our exotic recommendations all use "keys".

7. The Guide has been shortened to remove redundancy, but contains all the original essential information. For your benefit, please read it, and understand the Definitions and Positive Factors -- to make the most of your betting.

Simply put, the objective has always been the same -- to bet horses to win whose track odds are higher than TVL odds. In exotic betting, to combine "keys" with value bets.

8. The Pace and Speed Report has been included for the enjoyment of users who view the races live, and like to know the probable running style of the race. That is, which horse is likely to be running in front, and which horse is likely to be closing.

It has one particular, although occasional, use in betting:

If a bias develops (as on a sloppy track) favor the "pace" horse. If the track is deep or heavy and the closers are winning, favor the "speed" horse.

Spanish version - Chinese version
It is a list of today's win contenders. These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:
"WIN FACTOR" =  #winners

   #win contenders

#horses entered

For example, 6 winners in 9 races, listing only 1/3 of the horses entered on today's card, yields a WIN FACTOR of 2.0, twice the expected value, and now the industry standard by which all handicappers are measured. Yes, you can expect most winners will be found on the THOROUGHBRED VALULINE, but, more importantly, it also provides the minimum odds you should accept. Most handicappers leave you hanging when post time comes. Should you accept 8/5? 7/5? 6/5? How good is this particular favorite? Without a serious betting line, you can't know when to bet and when to pass. The THOROUGHBRED VALULINE gives you the minimum odds you need in order to bet the races profitably over time. You cannot afford to bet the races without it.

The THOROUGHBRED VALULINE (TVL) is generated by a complex computer program, which carefully evaluates all handicapping factors, including all the past performances of each horse in every race. In addition to reviewing the entire history of each horse, the computer also weighs the success of jockeys and trainers, determining each horse's true chance of winning, and converting its win probability into a betting line (TVL).    TVL = [1/WP - 1]

The key to winning or losing at the races is whether you bet on "overlays" or "underlays" to the TVL. Overlays will lead to long-term profits. Underlays will eventually cost you your bankroll.

Founded by two university professors of economics and statistics, you can read about their background in About Us.

Making and Keeping Profits at the Races
To profit at the races over time, you must bet on win contenders whose track odds exceed their true chances of winning.

The legitimate win contenders can usually be identified using good handicapping techniques. But among the legitimate contenders, the best horse is not necessarily the best bet. In fact, often the best horse is over-bet, and we must look to the second-, third-, or fourth-best horse to win at a price.

The TVL tells you what odds to accept on each of the win contenders. The objective is to make only "value bets". A value bet is a bet to win on a horse whose track odds are higher than its VALULINE odds. For example, a horse which is 3/1 on the TVL and 9/2 on the track tote is a value bet (track odds 50% above TVL odds). This is an overlay.

(If you bet on underlays (horses whose track odds are lower than their chance of winning), you will eventually lose. For example, if you bet on win contenders whose chances of winning are 50%, these horses will lose 50% of the time. In order to break-even, you must get 1/1 track odds when you bet. If you continue to take less than "even money" (4/5, 3/5, 1/2, etc.), you will ultimately lose your bankroll.)

Why Should I Buy VALULINE?
The THOROUGHBRED VALULINE is America's best betting line. The mathematical superiority of VALULINE--over hunches, estimates, guesses, and the morning line--is your guide to long term profits. You need an accurate betting line to discover the profitable overlay bets.
  • Basic Strategy
    Bet to win on overlays to the TVL.

    VALULINE's list of win contenders includes each horse with a 10% or higher chance of winning the race. These horses are ranked by their chance of winning (WP). However, do not bet by rank. The betting strategy is to bet the horse whose track odds is most above TVL odds (largest overlay).

  • The Single Value Bet
    Bet to win on overlays to the TVL. If only one of the win contenders is an overlay, this is a powerful value bet:

    At Turf Paradise on Friday, January 9, 2004, ten horses ran in race 9. Only two of these were win contenders. PASS A STAR was the only overlay to TVL odds at 12/1 - an outstanding 380% overlay. Silent Text, while a legitimate win contender, did not possess track odds above TVL odds and was not a value bet. PASS A STAR won and paid $27.80. Silent Text completed a $132.00 exacta.

    TUP-9 6.5f DIRTTen Horses
    (4:25)CLM 4,000 4YUP $4,600
    P#ex q t s MLWPTVLTrack Odds
    3SILENT TEXT 5/236%9/5 7/5
    7PASS A STAR 8/129%5/212/1 SINGLE VALUE BET
  • Multiple Value Bets
    Bet to win on overlays to the TVL.

    When there is more than one overlay, we choose on the following basis:

    1. Highest ranked horse. When our top rated horse is an overlay to the TVL, it is almost always a strong value bet.
    2. Greatest amount of overlay. If the top ranked horses have small overlays, while a lower ranked horse has a significantly greater overlay, we bet the lower ranked horse. Horse "C" is the value bet in the following example:

      HorseTVL Odds Track Odds

    3. If there are three or more overlays in a race, we generally pass the race, unless there is a stand-out overlay, as above.

  • Longshot/Monster Value Bets
    Occasionally, win contenders on the VALULINE will have morning line odds of 10/1 or higher, offering potentially huge payoffs.

    A Longshot/Monster value bet is a horse that is at least a 100% overlay to the TVL, and is also 10/1 track odds or higher:

    At Gulfstream Park on Friday, January 9, 2004, there were four win contenders in race 4. Two had track odds above TVL odds. CODE OF JUSTICE was 29/1, a 544% overlay to its fair odds of 9/2. SPECIAL REPORT was 11/1, a 144% overlay to its fair odds of 9/2. Both were outstanding value bets. CODE OF JUSTICE won and paid $61.00. SPECIAL REPORT ran second, completing a $549.20 exacta.

    GP-4 7f DIRT Nine Horses
    (2:55) -ALW F 3Y #34,000
    P#ex q t s MLWPTVLTrack Odds
    5SISTI'S PRIDE  5/236%9/5 6/5
    6SPECIAL REPORT  6/118%9/2 11/1 VALUE BET
    1FORTY MOVES  4/113%7/13/1
  • Exotic Value Bets

    The strategy to winning the exotics is to key the overlays:

    1. A value bet can be "saved" behind the favorite in an exacta.
    2. A value bet can be combined in a daily double with a Strong Favorite.
    3. A value bet can be combined with our other win contenders in an exacta, quinella, or trifecta.
    4. A value bet can be the key to a good payoff in a pick 3 with two Strong Favorites.
    5. A value bet can be the key to a good payoff in a daily double or pick 3 combining all our win contenders.

      At Aqueduct on Sunday, January 11, 2004, an outstanding single value bet appeared in the seventh race:

      AQU-7 1m1/16 DIRT Twelve Horses
      (3:16) -ALW F/M 4YUP $46,000
      P#ex q t s MLWPTVLTrack Odds
      3NICOLE KATHRYN  4/129%5/2 5/2
      1e-ALITTLEBITBRASS  6/120%4/1 5/2

      SOVEREIGNOFTHESEA won and paid $42.20. This TVL win contender was an outstanding single value bet, and a qualifying Exotic Value Bet. There was a pick 3 offered in the 7-8-9th races. By combining the Exotic Value Bet SOVEREIGNOFTHESEA to the TVL win contenders in the 8th race (two contenders) to the TVL win contenders in the 9th race (three contenders), a $2 pick 3 ticket cost 1x2x3x$2 = $12, and the pick 3 payoff was $1,404.00! This was a 1,160% return on a $12 investment!

    6. A value bet can be back-wheeled for "boxcar" payoffs.
    7. A potential value bet in a later race can be the key to a good payoff in a daily double or pick 3 combining all our win contenders.
    8. Exacta, trifecta, and superfecta "boxing" of our win contenders can produce good payoffs, when the box includes one or more value bets.
    9. Pick 6: VALULINE's top two or three win contenders have won many pick 6's. This longshot bet may be worth the investment, if there are two or more Strong Favorites (singles) and at least one monster value bet in the 6-race sequence.
    10. A Strong Favorite ("thumbs up") can provide a reliable "in the money" horse to win an exacta or trifecta with a value bet. See the illustration below:

    The founders of the THOROUGHBRED VALULINETM, Dr. Johnson and Dr. Kenley, encourage your comments and would like to hear of your success. Contact them at the email below.

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      Copyright © 2010-2015 Johnson, Kenley & Associates Inc.