Thursday, July 20, 2017

Valuline is Unique and Unequaled
To make profits at the races over time, you must have two resources: a good list of win contenders in each race you bet, and an accurate fair odds line on each win contender. The better are these resources, the more profit you will make.
The proof is the "Win Factor" test:

  1. Valuline's list of win contenders is better than most public handicappers. We know this by repeated testing. How does it compare to your list?

    Here is the formula which answers this question:

    a) Take the number of the day's winners on handicapper's list of win contenders and divide by the number of races run that day.

    b) Then, divide that proportion by:

    The number of win contenders on handicapper's list of win contenders divided by the number of horses which ran that day.

    Here's an example of Valuline from Santa Anita:

    6 / 9 = 0.6721 / 68 = 0.310.67 /0.31 = 2.16

    (That is, Valuline had 6 winners in 9 races (67%) while listing 21 win contenders out of 68 horses running (31%). The division shows win factor of 2.16 which means that Valuline had over twice as many winners as would be expected from random selections. This is a "good" list.)

    c) Conclusion: If the answer approaches 2.00, you have a "good" list. The higher the answer, the better the list. In fairness to your list, or whatever handicapper's list you test, you should examine at least one week's results (5 racing days). If the handicapper commonly provides longshots, a "good" list can score slightly below 2.00. 

  2. Now the most important resource -- the fair odds line: This is where Valuline "blows away" all competition. We know this by repeated testing. Most handicappers do not provide an odds line on their win contenders. Do you? This is because they do not take the time, or do not have the ability, to translate their selections into the horse's mathematical chance of winning the race, as shown only by fair odds. Those handicappers that pretend to provide fair odds, or guess, can be very misleading, doing an injustice to bettors, and costing you bankroll. Fortunately, however, there is a test, or proof.

    There is a mathematically exact relationship between a horse's chance of winning (or win probability), and it's fair odds:

Win Probability (%) Fair Odds
Source: Barry Meadow, "Money Secrets at the Racetrack", p.21. Thus, a horse which has a 50% chance of winning the race will lose 50% of the time. In order for you to break- even on this horse you must get odds of 1/1. Take any lower odds, and you will lose your bankroll over time. You must get higher odds (that is, overlays to fair odds) to make profits at the races. Finding and betting overlays must become your objective at the races!
This is the reason Valuline was created - because there are not any accurate fair odds lines available elsewhere. You may be able to handicap a satisfactory list of win contenders, but who do you bet on? The answer is - the horse which is a good overlay to its fair odds. This is a value bet.

Here's the simple test and proof of the accuracy of Valuline "fair odds":

Take any race at any track handicapped by Valuline, and jot-down final track odds next to Valuline (TVL) odds. Note the similarity, or match, race after race. What this means, of course, is that Valuline has accurately measured each win contender's chance of winning, or the odds would not correspond.

Now do the same test with your odd's line or that of any other handicapper. (In fairness to the handicapper, you should examine at least a full day's races) Now, compare these odds lines to Valuline, and you will see the difference. You will conclude that Valuline is superior. Remember one truth: If you hope to profit, you must know fair odds, or your handicapping is wasted.

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