To make profits at the races over time, you must have
two resources: a good list of win contenders in each race you bet, and an
accurate fair odds line on each win contender. The better are these resources,
the more profit you will make.
The proof is the "Win Factor" test:
Valuline's list of win contenders is better than most public
handicappers. We know this by repeated testing. How does it compare to your
list?
Here is the formula which answers this question:
a) Take the number of the day's
winners on handicapper's list of win contenders and divide by the number of
races run that day.
b) Then, divide that proportion
by:
The number of win contenders on handicapper's list of win
contenders divided by the number of horses which ran that day.
Here's an example of Valuline from Santa Anita:
6
/ 9 = 0.67
21 / 68 = 0.31
0.67 /0.31 = 2.16
(That is, Valuline had 6 winners in 9 races (67%) while listing
21 win contenders out of 68 horses running (31%). The division shows win factor
of 2.16 which means that Valuline had over twice as many winners as would be
expected from random selections. This is a "good" list.)
c) Conclusion: If the answer
approaches 2.00, you have a "good" list. The higher the answer, the
better the list. In fairness to your list, or whatever handicapper's list you
test, you should examine at least one week's results (5 racing days). If the
handicapper commonly provides longshots, a "good" list can score
slightly below 2.00.
Now the most important resource -- the fair odds line: This is
where Valuline "blows away" all competition. We know this by repeated
testing. Most handicappers do not provide an odds line on their win contenders.
Do you? This is because they do not take the time, or do not have the ability,
to translate their selections into the horse's mathematical chance of winning
the race, as shown only by fair odds. Those handicappers that pretend to
provide fair odds, or guess, can be very misleading, doing an injustice to
bettors, and costing you bankroll. Fortunately, however, there is a test, or
proof.
There is a mathematically exact relationship between a horse's chance of winning (or win probability), and it's fair odds:
Win Probability (%)
Fair Odds
90.91
1-10
83.33
1-5
71.42
2-5
66.67
1-2
62.50
3-5
55.56
4-5
50.00
1-1
45.45
6-5
41.67
7-5
40.00
3-2
38.46
8-5
35.71
9-5
33.33
2-1
28.57
5-2
25.00
3-1
22.22
7-2
20.00
4-1
18.19
9-2
16.67
5-1
14.29
6-1
12.50
7-1
11.11
8-1
10.00
9-1
Source: Barry Meadow, "Money Secrets at the Racetrack", p.21. Thus, a horse which has a 50% chance of
winning the race will lose 50% of the time. In order for you to break-
even on this horse you must get odds of 1/1. Take any lower odds, and
you will lose your bankroll over time. You must get higher odds (that is,
overlays to fair odds) to make profits at the races. Finding and betting
overlays must become your objective at the races!
This is the reason Valuline was created - because there are not
any accurate fair odds lines available elsewhere. You may be able to handicap a
satisfactory list of win contenders, but who do you bet on? The answer is - the
horse which is a good overlay to its fair odds. This is a value bet.
Here's the simple test and proof of the accuracy of Valuline "fair
odds":
Take any race at any track handicapped by Valuline, and jot-down
final track odds next to Valuline (TVL) odds. Note the similarity, or match,
race after race. What this means, of course, is that Valuline has accurately
measured each win contender's chance of winning, or the odds would not
correspond.
Now do the same test with your odd's line or that of any other
handicapper. (In fairness to the handicapper, you should examine at least a
full day's races) Now, compare these odds lines to Valuline, and you will see
the difference. You will conclude that Valuline is superior. Remember one
truth: If you hope to profit, you must know fair odds, or your
handicapping is wasted.
