Because we list as a win contender any horse with a
"10%" or higher chance of winning the race, we know we have a good
list of win contenders. TVL "fair odds" represent each win
contender's chance of winning (win probability). Valuline can either be used as
a "stand alone" method to discover and bet on good overlays, or as a
"bench mark" used in conjunction with your handicapping.
It makes no sense to us to present a fixed number of win
contenders in each race, as many handicappers do. Each race is different, and
our 10% qualifying rule means that races MUST necessarily have differing
numbers of win contenders. Some races have only one or two. Some have as many
as five or more.
ALL our Betting Strategies are recommended, having passed the
required testing.
The betting decision as to the acceptable minimum amount of
overlay should be an individual user's decision. We define a "negligible
overlay" as track odds less than 25% above TVL fair odds; a "marginal
value bet" as 25% to 49% above; a "good value bet" as 50% to 99%
above; an "outstanding value bet", and also a "Longshot/Monster
value bet" as 100% or more above TVL odds.
NOTE:
The degree of overlay determines the bet, not the horse's relative position on
the list of win contenders. The larger the overlay to TVL fair odds, the better
the value bet.
Late program scratches of win contenders require a
re-calculation of TVL odds.
Here's race #2 from Hollywood, June 2, 1999 as an example:
DELRAY DEVIL had a 29% win probability, which is TVL odds of 5/2.
PROFIT RECORD's win probability was 20% or 4/1. LESGARDIENS 17% = 5/1. NORTHERN
CALL 13% = 7/1.
PROFIT RECORD (with a 20% win probability) was a late scratch. To
re-calculate the win probability of the remaining contenders:
DELRAY DEVIL is now 29%/1-20% = 29%/.80 = 36% = 9/5
LES GARDIENS is now 17%/1-20% = 17%/.80 = 21% = 7/2
NORTHERN CALL is now 13%/1-20% = 13%/.80 = 16% = 5/1
NOTE: For conversion of the win probability into TVL fair odds,
either do the calculation (for DELRAY DEVIL 1/.36-1 = 1.8 = 9/5) or simply USE
THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Win Probability (%)
Fair Odds
90.91
1-10
83.33
1-5
71.42
2-5
66.67
1-2
62.50
3-5
55.56
4-5
50.00
1-1
45.45
6-5
41.67
7-5
40.00
3-2
38.46
8-5
35.71
9-5
33.33
2-1
28.57
5-2
25.00
3-1
22.22
7-2
Win Probability (%)
Fair Odds
20.00
4-1
18.19
9-2
16.67
5-1
14.29
6-1
12.50
7-1
11.11
8-1
10.00
9-1
9.09
10-1
8.33
11-1
7.69
12-1
6.25
15-1
4.76
20-1
3.85
25-1
3.23
30-1
1.96
50-1
1.00
99-1
(Scratches of entry-mates. Since we provide a combined win probability for
entries, the scratch of any part of the entry reduces the win probability of
the entry as a whole.)
The problem with single-factor analysis. The outcome of a horse
race is a combination of MANY factors. All of these factors must be
"measured" in order to determine the relative capability of a
contender -- to rank the horse in the order of its chance of winning and fair
odds. The recent popular "fad" of single-factor analysis has led to
handicapping errors: the bettor's emphasis on the factor (for example,
trainer/jockey "angles") leads to betting on the wrong horse.
Trainer/jockey angles are generally based on too small a sample, which is
frequently transitory. Trainer x uses jockey y on 9 mounts and wins 3 (33%).
(They still have lost together 67% of the time.) If in the next 18 mounts they
don't win together (which is very possible), the win percentage drops to 11%,
which is average.
Late jockey changes. Our past performance data INCLUDES those
jockey (and trainer) changes that are known and appear in the track program.
This ,then, is more complete than that which appears in "overnights".
Each track's Valuline report is issued daily throughout the race
meeting. The Exotic Key Plays report and the Top Ten Value Bets Report are
issued daily, except when there are not sufficient plays.
